Sunday, November 11, 2012

We Have a New President!

Note:  This represents a departure from the norm of not writing anything about politics.

The fall election of 2012 is over.  Turnout for the election was good, meaning terrible.  Approximately 30% of registered voters did not vote, and a sizable minority of people are not even registered.  If any candidate or issue could tap into these groups, the election would be over before it started.
Turnout for presidential elections is typically higher than for off-year elections.  This is reactionary to the reality that while the president holds an important role, many other elections, whether issues or more local candidates arguably have a bigger effect on our day-to-day lives than the president.  But, the turnout on these elections is often 50% or less.  When unregistered voters are included, the turnout is abysmal.
It is easy to complain about the state or direction of current events and politics.  Decisions are made by apathy.  There is much complaining that the fringes of the two parties control the parties and thus the political machine.  The fringes vote, so they have the louder voice.  The fringe feeds the beast with the money it needs.  This feeds the impression that the country is more divided than it really is.
"To you:  The Great Silent Majority." - Richard Nixon

As the title of this post suggest, we have a new president.  He is the same physical human being as we have had for slightly less than the last four years, but this second election changes him.  It has to.  The type of personality that runs for president is an Uber-Type-A personality.  Obama started to think about the 2012 election the day after he was elected in 2008.  Or likely before.  He has more in common with the big business leaders he vilified in the election than the people who elect him.  Obama has more in common with Romney than the people who elect him.
People very often vote for the person who they think would be more like them, who would like to sit down over a beer with.  People in politics at that the upper federal level do not want to sit down with the common electorate.  The electorate are the tools they need to have their next career move.  It is instructive that people elected at the federal level are almost universally paid in the upper few percent of incomes in the United States.
Cynical?  Maybe, but honest.

Winning the election must be bit sad for Obama.  At the age of 51 he is at the pinnacle of his career.  He has four more years to be in the BabyFace-Nelson spotlight.  After that, his role will change to one of more a grandfatherly role for the Democratic Party.
Many presidents have gone on to do more important work after the transfer of power.  Nixon left in near-disgrace, but his behind the scene work in China laid groundwork that prevented the current US relationship with that country from being the current friend/competitor state, to outright enemy.  Carter left to go on to monitor elections around the world, calling corrupt third world elections free and fair while condemning minor issues in the US as disgraceful.  The odd-couple pairing of Clinton and GHW Bush is amusing, but further illustrates the point.  Yet, the spotlight is gone.
Most federal-level politicians will re-robe in politics for "major" elections, but it can not possibly be the same.

"This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility." - Barack Obama
Winning the election must be very freeing for Obama.  At 51 he has the ability to do whatever he wants without the constraints of needing to reapply for his current job in for more years.  Financially, he and his family is set for life, but they already were years ago.
The reality is more complicated.  There is a separation of powers and in the short term, President Obama can only do what congress pushes his way.  He has other options for his agenda as president and commander-in-chief, but the Supreme Court also serves as a check.
While the three branches of government do serve as a roadblock to doing whatever he really wants to do, it is secondary to his own road block.  He is likely more worried about what his legacy will be, how history will perceive him in 10, 50, 100 years.  This includes what effect he has on his political partners and party.  If Obama were to push radical change he may (or may not?) believe in, but it resulted in years of set-backs for the political left, his legacy would be forever tarnished.
And so constrained by his own legacy, we are left with a political situation that exists only slightly different than what existed a few months ago.
If Romney would have been elected, things would be a little different, but the same personal constraints on history would have resulted in any difference being muted.

The press will deconstruct the election six ways 'til Sunday (I have no idea what that phrase means) and the political glitterati will speak prepared, tired lines about what the election really means and how this election sets the stage for years of change.
It may happen, but hundreds of years in this country suggest cynicism.  Globally it is the same, outside of dictatorial changes.
For most of us, we'll go on about our day-to-day lives.  Going to work, buying groceries and dealing with issues federal politicians can't possible fathom.  When is the last time that either Michelle or Barack Obama actually went into a Walmart to buy something?  Or went to Walgreen's since they were out of deodorant?  I'd suggest these mundane things we all do are about as foreign to both Obama and Romney as our visits to the West Wing.

And I'll move on to writing about more important things every week.  Especially since next week marks the beginning of my deer season.

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