Showing posts with label computer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label computer. Show all posts

Friday, January 13, 2017

Driverless Cars: Our Near Term Dystopia

Somewhere around 1995, a manager, Bill, at work commented how he was not looking forward to the day when he had to pull over to the side of the road and reboot his car.  To be clear, we are already there and have been for some time.  We were really there already in 1995.
Every new car has some form of the rather unhelpful "Check Engine Soon" light.  These lights rarely lie, although faults that they signal may be intermittent or transitory.  Whether the identified fault will cause imminent and catastrophic damage, or it is merely an aged sensor beginning to slow, the driver is free to continue merrily on the way - or nervously on the way depending on his or her level of chronic worrying.
This situation IS the "pulling over the car to reboot" - but the default state is to allow the driver to continue.  The default to continue does not work in a driverless car future; the fail-safe is to be immediately off the road until all systems are go.  Without the driver, the job of many of the sensors and associated software takes on a more life-altering role beyond the life of the automobile and beyond the life of those in that immediate automobile.  Until driverless technology becomes mundane and invisible, this paints a very frustrating future vision.

Luckily robots are not programmed with a sense of fairness, but reliability of "things" is expected to be much higher than of people.  Brakes are expected to work 100% of the time, even if a human doesn't use them appropriately and takes on a telephone pole.  Computers are supposed to boot up every time even if someone clicks on a phishing link and opens the computer up to external control.  Cars are supposed to start even if basic maintenance is sometimes ignored.  So it will be with autonomous vehicles; every situation encountered will be expected to be handled expertly, even if that isn't the standard for humans.  If a deer runs in front of a driverless car, while the car is driving through an oil patch with winds dropping a tree across the road and the car crashes, it will be interpreted as a vehicle/software failure.  Developing vehicles to drive autonomously through 75% driving situations is probably feasible right now.  Expand that to 95% and it gets difficult, 99% harder.  That last 0.001%, becomes nearly impossible...
Cars are also being developed for the globe, bringing efficiency to manufacturing reducing development costs.  Creating autonomous cars that will work as well in Minot, North Dakota as they will in New Delhi, India seems daunting, unless global development reverts to regional vehicles - this is economically unlikely and increases the technical difficulty even further.

I actually enjoy driving.  No, getting stuck in heavy gridlock isn't fun, but I've organized my life so that is rare.  I even often enjoy the daily commute, although the destination may not be ideal.
Listening to the media would suggest I'm a dinosaur in this, but I don't buy it.  I think this is partially due to the growing urban/not-urban divide, which itself is painted with a city-scape lens by the largely urban media.

Uber - basically a less unsexy taxi cab - and driverless cars are now prompting clairvoyant wizards to foresee the death of the personal automobile.  Even douche bags are telling us cars are sooooo 2012 (I've never met this douche bag, but reading what he has written certainly suggests he's quite comfortable in his douche-bag-ness).
We've seen this before.  Dean Kamen told us the Segway was going to revolutionize cities.  Cities were going to be torn down and rebuilt all around his mall-cop-mobile scooter; cars were going to be melted down and turned into Segways.  Dean Kamen may be a smart guy, but he must live in a very narrow bubble.

The one thing we can predict, is that we can not predict the future.  Technology can be envisioned, but how it is implemented is something different entirely.  And how it eventually gets used once it is in the grubby paws of the average person is different still.

Because the future can't be predicted, I'm going to go ahead and predict the future.

1)  Driverless roadways are decades away.
There are a lot of old cars out there.  Vehicle quality continues to improve, and older cars are remaining reliable for longer and longer.  The often-cited average age is 11 years.  And that is average, meaning half are older than that.  Not only that, but how driverless technology will interact with drivers is evolving slowly.  Driverless cars can be programmed to respond in a very predictable manner, but the remaining analog interface (the human) can not - whether in a driverless car or not.  There are also a lot of other interests that play a role in addition to millennials who don't want to drive (the difference between an interest and a special interest is whether one agrees with it or not):  motorcycles, bicycles, antique and vintage automobiles, roadkill.
Much like the houses of the future are only slowly showing up due to a lack of infrastructure and because nobody is tearing down all the old houses to build new ones, driverless roadways will need infrastructure improvements that don't currently exist - we can't even currently keep our bridges safe and roads (relatively) free of potholes, adding in new infrastructure (and ongoing maintenance) seems even more unlikely.

2)  Driver aiding technology is here and will continue to be grow.
Driver aiding technology is currently at the curiosity stage.  Tesla's successes and failures are widely and loudly reported.  Fairly or not, this is true whether the technology was being used as intended or not.  Quoted from above: "And how it eventually gets used once it is in the grubby paws of the average person is different still."
Every manufacturer is looking at some form of driver aided technology, and calling it driverless.  Regulations are slowly evolving, which is probably a good thing.
Some of this will be good.  Some will be bad.

3)  Driver aiding technology will be expensive and frustrating - at first.
Cruise control, fuel injection, anti-lock brakes, throttle  by wire, touch screens, dual-clutch transmissions, etc...  These are just a few examples of technology that was first available on (primarily) expensive vehicles, but worked its way down to plebeian cars.  Once in average-joe-mobiles, these things usually work, but still have levels of evolution to go through until they reach nirvana - aka nobody thinks about them anymore.  Until that point is reached, it can be frustrating.  So it will be with driverless aids.
But advances will be made.  Nobody thinks about cruise control, fuel injection and anti-lock brakes anymore (and few would want to go back to carburetors or drum brakes on all four corners).  Touch screens and dual-clutch automatic transmissions are getting pretty good, with some warts still showing.
There is a fundamental difference, fuel injection was and is happy existing within the confines of the individual vehicle.  If fuel injection required all (or most) other cars on the road to also be fuel injected, or a complicated set of rules for the fuel injection to work and for the carbureted vehicles to aspirate fuel, the evolution of fuel injection would have been very slow.
I certainly hope we are not setting ourselves up for a late-1970s re-reality, where the mandates for fuel efficiency and emissions got so far ahead of the technology that the result was a lot of really malaiseful cars.


4)  Somehow, driver aiding technology will be used for porn.
Every technological advancement always seems to be used for porn.  Glossy magazines, VHS, DVD, HD-DVD, online streaming, cell phones, smart phone, personal computers, real-time streaming...  So somehow I'm sure driverless cars will be used for porn too.

Sadly, I may actually be a dinosaur.  I'm not really looking forward to the current vision of the dystopian driverless future.  I enjoy driving.  I even still prefer a manual transmission.  I'd be lost without a motorcycle.  What I'm encouraged by is that this change will happen much slower than what visionaries are sure of - and it will look a lot different than they see as well.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Who died?

I turned on the TV as I was getting ready for work on Tuesday and heard a theme song I instantly recognized.  I didn't think I had left the channel on one of the many broadcast rerun channels, so I instantly said, "Wonder who died?"
I probably only watched a couple seasons of Growing Pains.  I was certainly done watching by the time they put the show on life support by bringing in Chrissy (Ashley Johnson) and Luke (Leonardo DiCaprio) as Kirk Cameron and Tracey Gold got too old to be relevant to the show anymore.  About the only episode I actually remember is the one where Mike and dad go to a Bruce Springsteen concert and get caught on TV after - resulting in some teasing by Mike's friends; I was quite surprised this was a very early episode in the series.

This started me thinking about all the other people who died in 2016.  There seems to be an acceleration in the notable people of some level of celebrity who have played a role in my past who are now dying.  Presumably, this will only continue to increase...

David Bowie, January 8:  I can't say I was a huge fan; I sort of saw him as this weird, androgynous performer.  But I recognized his unique contribution to music.  I probably appreciated Ziggy Stardust more later in my life...

Phil Fish, January 26:  I probably only watched Barney Miller in reruns, late at night - and I'm not sure when, since we weren't really allowed to watch that much TV, but I do remember watching Abe Vigoda on the show.  Hard to say now if those memories are good or bad, but there they are.

Antonin Scalia, February 12:  My Criminal Justice professor in college said that listing the names of the 12 Supreme Court justices would be on the final exam.  With the internet in its infancy at that point, I was trying to find current information and it was not terribly easy.  My boss at the time called directory assistance, got the number for the Supreme Court in Washington DC and got the information from the person who answered the phone.  Seriously!  The list wasn't on the final exam - which I shouldn't be surprised about since the professor had some major problems.  I'm quite sure he at least had an alcohol problem, if not issues with something much more troublesome.  I liked Scalia's matter-of-fact, no apologies style; reportedly when Helen Prejean (Dead Man Walking) ran into him in an airport and she asked him if he was Antonin Scalia, he responded, "Well, somebody has to be..."  The fact that he remained friends with the diametrically opposed Ruth Bader-Ginsburg is something everyone with strong political beliefs should emulate.

Henry Warnimont, February 15:  Punky Brewster was one of several kid-themed Annie-esque TV shows (think Different Strokes and Webster).  I guess we all at some level wanted fabulously rich pseudo-parents to appear out of nowhere - 'cause this happens all the time.  George Gaynes as Punky's "dad" is slightly unmemorable, or maybe I didn't actually (and embarrassingly) watch the show enough to remember it that well.

Harper Lee, February 19:  Too Kill a Mockingbird is a great book, an American classic that is actually worth reading.  I've read enough reviews to know I should probably proceed cautiously with Go Set a Watchman, and it is sad that there was so much controversy surrounding the release of that book.  At a minimum, it was updated from its original form to be more in line with modern political philosophy in a way.

@, March 5:  He may not be a household name, but Ray Tomlinson "invented" email and pioneered the use of the "@" symbol.  One man, one symbol, forever a part of modern technical history.

Nancy Reagan, March 6:  "Just Say No!"  First Lady, Mrs. Reagan, played her own role in the Ronald Reagan White House.  Lots of criticism over astrology or spending of money on household furnishings, but it is without a doubt that President Reagan would not have been who and what he was without her.

Benny, March 17:  I'm not sure if Larry Drake's character on LA Law had a last name, but his portrayal as a functionally slow person was really good.  LA Law had a good run as one of the better of the many 1980's lawyer shows.

Gary Shandling, March 24:  Not my favorite comedian, but I did watch The Gary Shandling Show quite a bit.  I don't recall finding it particularly enjoyable, but his awkward comedic style was done in a such a non-television way that the show was actually quite revolutionary.

Eugene Gatling, March 28:  The premise of  Benson wasn't very strong, but James Noble's character as governor allowed Robert Guillaume to have the self-named show.  Despite the show, the story lines were often surprisingly funny.

Merle Haggard, April 6:  I'm sort of neutral on country music, but broadly speaking, there is a sliding scale from the music's origins to the music now.  Merle lived country music in a way that Garth Brooks is a best a very weak copy of (and his new beard is really, really awful).  When we lose Chris Kristofferson, who is about the same age, it will be a very sad day indeed.

Mildred Krebs, April 17:  Remington Steele was a great show, and paved the way for other flirtatious detective shows (i.e. Moonlighting).  Doris Roberts was a great part of Remington Steele, even if a little over-the-top.  Not as much over-the-top as Everybody Loves Raymond, which was not loved by everyone (and even got a little bit dark for a sitcom).

Prince, April 21:  Probably the death that bugged me the most.  Like David Bowie, I really wasn't a big fan in the 1980s, and also like Bowie, I saw Prince as this weird, androgynous singer.  I may or may not have ever seen the movie Purple Rain, but I listened to the music from it a lot.  "Is the water warm enough?"  He definitely had a very unique role in popular music that will continue to influence for some time.

Morely Safer, May 19:  60 Minutes is no longer the show that it once was.  Now more pop-political than anything else and while I like Scott Pelley as CBS News anchor, I think this has weakened both the CBS News and 60 Minutes.  Morely Safer's interview with Salvador Dali has to be one of the best people interviews ever, and the Homer Simpson/The Shining/60 Minutes blurb from TreeHouse of Horrors V is a great brief tribute.

Mohamed Ali, June 3:  An arrogant man if there ever was one, yet oddly humble at the same time.  His place in American culture goes beyond boxing.  Somewhere I have a book of jokes - oddly 1980's jokes that are ethnic without being racial - one of which references him.  "How can I preach against violence when I just plunked down $200 to watch Ali and Frazier pummel each other for a few hours?"

Mr. Lebowski, August 2:  David Huddleston was the other Mr. Lebowski from The Big Lebowski - yet another cult Cohen Brother's movie.  "I'm just going to go find a cash machine..."

The Waco Kid, August 29:  Blazing Saddles could not be made today - and both Gene Wilder and Cleavon Little (1992) made that movie what it still is today.  I also sort of remember watching Young Frankenstein after it was accidentally grabbed at a VHS video rental store instead of Young Einstein.  Einstein may have been more topical at the time, but in retrospect, Frankenstein was probably the better choice.  See No Evil, Hear No Evil with Richard Pryor (2005) would have been the better topical choice...

Janet Reno, November 7:  Quite glad the Clinton (Bill) Administration has ended and no fan of Janet Reno as Attorney General.  But she played a major role in politics during a formative time in college.  I guess I'll probably remember her Dance Party from Saturday Night Live as much as anything else, and her willingness to play along after she left office.  Hopefully she got a chance to see much of the country in her red pickup truck too.

Gwen Ifill, November 14:  I wasn't a fan of the News Hour and I saw her as unnecessarily partisan, but she was also very smart.  She seemed so very young, cancer is a bitch...

Mrs. Brady, November 24:  The mom nobody had, which was probably a good thing.  Why a stay-at-home mom needed a live-in house keeper still baffles me.  The Brady Bunch was seemingly always on in the afternoon, so I watched a lot of it in reruns at friend's houses.  It is nearly unwatchable now - and it may have been then as well.  Perhaps Florence Henderson's demise seems somehow tied to the slow, painful death of Crisco.

Fidel Castro, November 25:  Revolutionary, Dictator, Celebrity Ruler, Tyrant, the list goes on.  Those of us who grew up in the Reagan era still miss the cold war.  In a world where Russia could no longer be the bad guy, Cubans were still able to play that role in the movie Red Dawn.

John Glenn, December 8:  An American hero, but I just didn't like the guy.  I wrote him a letter when he was our Senator (also when I was less realistically cynical about politics) and the letter I got in return was quite condescending.  I still have it somewhere, although I'm not sure where it is.  In retrospect, the return letter was almost certainly written by some flunky staffer and not something he ever even saw.

Which brings us to Jason Seaver, December 13:  Dad from the formerly mentioned Growing Pains, Alan Thicke - a show when sitcoms still allowed the dad's to more than just the buffoon of every joke.

It is transitionally sad to see all these deaths of "notables" from 2016.  Still, the year isn't over yet!
And it makes me start to think ... how many people who were actually important in my life, but who I've lost touch with over the years are continuing to pass?  Maybe that is the real lesson from a list of celebrity deaths.

Belated Edit:  The death of the very influential Princess Leia occurred after this was published.  Starpuff hairdo, "Into the garbage chute, Flyboy" and "It's not funny anymore James" (Big Bang Theory cameo).  'nuff said...

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Hard to Dispose, More Difficult to Discard (Government Doesn't Get It)

I saw a news story a few weeks ago that the City of Cincinnati has set very strict rules about what can be thrown in the garbage, and more importantly, how this garbage must be attractively displayed for pick-up by what must be very discerning Solid Waste Engineers.
Most people will probably try to comply.  But with significant fines for violations, the laws of unintended consequences means that alternate disposal methods are likely.

When I get in the mood to clean and purge, I really get in the mood to clean and purge.  Since moving into this house nearly five years ago, there was quite a bit of electronic paraphernalia that I had never used, and other sundries which were likely never going to be used again.  Having a few hours last weekend, I went through much of this stuff to do a cathartic purge.
I had several storage areas where old computer hardware and software was collected and it was time to get rid of it.  After deciding what to keep and what to get rid of, I had a few piles to throw away, recycle, and unknown.  In the unknown pile were things like my palm pilot - I was unsure if it still had my information on it.  A hammer solved that dilemma, and it went into the trash pile.
I similarly destroyed the dual hard drives in my old desktop computer.  One saw several death blows with a hammer, the other was disassembled and the magnetic platter removed and shattered.
While destroying the hard drives, my memory was brought back (pun intended) to some relatively inexpensive Sun Sparc stations that the federal government was selling about 18 years ago.  These were such a good deal, that the research lab I was working in at the time looked into them.  As government computers, they had to have the hard drives removed which was understandable.  However, the bureaucrats also required the volatile RAM to be removed.  I can only surmise some ignorant government idiot manager was worried that RAM may secretly retain information.  Unfortunately, Sparc-compatible RAM was very expensive and cost nearly as much as the computers were worth.  Our lab chose not to buy these very expensive, cheap computers.

In my piles of electronic stuff to get rid of were two CRT monitors.  These went along with my older desktop computer.  I really don't see value in a desktop computer anymore as I don't play computer games.  I used to be an avid gamer, but like a quantum switch, one day I couldn't take it anymore and stopped, nearly overnight.
I also had several computer games to get rid of.  Some of these go back to Windows 3.1 days (Sam n' Max Hit the Road).  There is minimal value of these on Ebay, and I'm not sure that a disadvantaged kid somewhere will have his life improved by a good copy of Outlaws (circa 1998), so these were discarded.  As so much of my life was spent playing Doom II, Quake, Quake II and Unreal, I kept these - likely to be discarded at some future purge...

Which brings me back to my CRT computer monitors and what is the "right thing" to do with them.  There is a very limited market for reuse as monitors.  The world is now flat.  The CRT market is probably on the same scale as reuse for artistic purposes.  While creative, I'm not sure how many monitor fish tanks the world really needs.
The best option for these monitors was to recycle them appropriately.  I went to the county's website to see what options are available.  There were several listed options for computer monitors, even specifically denoting CRT monitors.  Sadly, the website is, at best, very out of date.  After traipsing around with two heavy monitors, nobody would take them for recycling, despite my willingness to also accompany them by a nominal fee to dispose of them properly.  One place listed on the county website, which may have been where I dropped off an old TV a few years ago, was apparently not quite as conscientious as they claimed to be...

After trying to do "the right thing," for quite some time, I was frustrated.  I (thankfully) do not live under the authoritative regime of Cincinnati.  I called my local refuse company and they said they will happily take and landfill CRT monitors and televisions.  I won't know until I get my next solid waste disposal bill whether this option came with a charge for it, but the nice woman I talked to on the phone said that if there wasn't very much trash and they weren't that big, the monitors would be picked up for free.  I'm often surprised at the mountains of trash some people leave out on garbage day; at my house, I usually have one very nearly empty, skinny, plastic garbage can.  The cost for this seems ridiculous compared to my neighbor's piles, as the garbage company charges a set fee per week per house.  I guess being able to throw away mountains comes at a cost.

I really don't feel too good about landfilling two old, working computer monitors.  But my options were limited.  I could:
a)  put it in the basement where it will be harder and more expensive to throw away some time in the future.
b)  continue to drive these monitors all over the world trying to find somewhere to take them, while realizing they still may never be taken care of appropriately.
c)  legally dispose of them in the landfill thanks to the benevolence of the solid waste company that serves my rural township.

I suppose there is also a d) option.  I could, under the dark cover of night, throw them into an adhoc dump.  There is a ravine created by a small creek about two miles from where I live.  Jack-wad disgusting people dump all manner of stuff there.  About a year ago, the county government cleaned it all up and put a sign telling people not to recreate the pile of garbage (with apologies to Arlo Guthrie), but it is growing once again.
I never even thought of choosing this option, but this WILL BE  the result of Cincinnati's new Draconian garbage policy.  Nearly all people want to do the right thing, but every barrier put in front of the right thing will lower the relative energy needed for people to do the wrong thing.  When it is easier and cheaper to risk dumping that old ratty couch behind an abandoned building, it will happen.  It is sad that high and mighty city government, such as Cincinnati City Council, is too blind to see this irrefutable law of unintended consequences.

I remember when I got my first really big CRT computer monitor.  I had just built my computer system after researching and buying all individual components.  It was a dual boot system - OS/2 and Windows NT - I guess I was really a glutton for punishment then.  I spent countless hours staring at that monitor while I played Quake II and Unreal.  That first large monitor died many years ago and was recycled at a time when it was relatively easy to do so.
Now, I can't imagine ever buying another CRT screen.  My personal laptop is an old derided netbook, but it is small, robust and does everything I need.

The two monitors will likely live on under a mountain of garbage.  If there is any solace in this poor, but legal, option, it is only that they may be resurrected one day when we turn to mining landfills for the materials they contain in a future post-apocalypse.  And maybe that future will look just like Quake II.